Polymarket Whale Dictionary — 50 Terms Every Trader Should Know

Prediction markets have their own vocabulary. Some of it is borrowed from finance (bid, ask, spread), some from crypto (gas, proxy wallet, ERC-1155), and some is native to Polymarket and Kalshi themselves (CLOB tokens, redeemable, condition). Here are 50 terms we use every day at PolySharks — defined plainly, in the exact way they apply to whale tracking.

A

AMM (Automated Market Maker)

A smart contract that quotes prices algorithmically based on pool liquidity. Polymarket used AMMs early on; it now runs a CLOB (central limit order book) instead.

Arbitrage

Buying an outcome on one venue while selling the equivalent outcome on another, locking in a structural spread. The spread needs to exceed fees + slippage + opportunity cost to matter.

Ask

The lowest price a seller is willing to accept for a share of an outcome. On Polymarket, the ask on YES at 62¢ means someone will sell you YES for 62¢.

B

Bankroll

The total capital you have available for prediction market trading. Professional whales typically risk 1–3% of bankroll per high-conviction position.

Bid

The highest price a buyer is offering for a share. Spread = ask − bid.

Book (orderbook)

The live list of bids and asks for a market. Thin books move on small trades; deep books absorb whale-sized bets without much slippage.

C

Cash value

The mark-to-market value of a position at current prices. Different from realized PnL, which only counts after the market resolves.

CLOB token

The ERC-1155 token ID that represents a specific outcome share (e.g., YES or NO). Each Polymarket condition has two CLOB token IDs, one per outcome.

Condition

A Polymarket market with binary or multi-outcome options. Each condition has a unique conditionId.

Confluence

When two independent venues (e.g., Polymarket and Kalshi) have flow moving the same direction on the same market. Two agreeing venues is a stronger signal than one.

Consensus bet

A market where 2+ top-50 whales hold the same side simultaneously. Group sizes of 3+ are the strongest signals; groups of 1 are noise.

Conviction

The size of a whale’s position relative to their total book. A whale with $100K on a bet out of a $5M book has 2% conviction; that’s meaningful.

D

Divergence

Opposite of confluence — when Polymarket and Kalshi flow oppose each other. Often the markets aren’t equivalent, or one venue is mispricing.

E

Edge

Your expected return after all costs. Raw spread minus fees, slippage, settlement delay, and tax friction.

Entry price

The average price at which a whale acquired a position. Compare against current price to see whether they’re in profit.

Event URL

The human-readable Polymarket URL for a market (e.g., /event/trump-wins-2028). Gets you directly to the market UI.

Expected value (EV)

Probability-weighted outcome. If a market pays $1 and you think YES has 55% true probability, EV at 48¢ is +7¢.

F

Fee tier

Polymarket charges 2% of profits at resolution; Kalshi charges variable per-trade fees. These must be subtracted from any arbitrage spread.

Flow

The recent volume-weighted direction of trades. 78% YES flow means most recent dollars have bought YES.

G

Gas

The Polygon transaction fee to execute an on-chain trade on Polymarket. Usually negligible (<$0.05) but matters for high-frequency bots.

Gross edge

Arbitrage spread before fees. Net edge = gross edge − fees. Ignore any arb with less than 1% net edge.

I

Impermanent loss

Legacy AMM-era concept. Doesn’t apply to current Polymarket CLOB but sometimes confused with mark-to-market drawdown.

J

Jaccard similarity

A 0–1 score measuring how many words two strings share (intersection over union). PolySharks uses ≥ 0.35 with a stopword filter to match Polymarket and Kalshi markets.

K

Kalshi

A CFTC-regulated US prediction market. Different legal structure from Polymarket; trades USD directly.

L

Leaderboard

The ranked list of top traders by PnL, volume, or weighted score. PolySharks tracks the top 50 by all-time PnL as the primary whale cohort.

Liquidity

The depth of the book. High liquidity = you can move in and out without moving the price. Whales only trade deep liquidity.

M

Market cap

Total $ wagered across all outcomes on a given condition. Proxy for liquidity and interest.

Mark-to-market

Valuing a position at current market price rather than purchase price. MTM PnL swings daily; realized PnL only changes at settlement.

Max payout

Always $1 per share on binary Polymarket outcomes. Buy YES at 40¢, payout if correct is $1; net profit 60¢.

N

NO

The opposite side of YES on any binary market. NO pays $1 if the event doesn’t happen. YES price + NO price ≈ $1.

O

Orderbook (see Book)

See Book.

Outcome

One side of a market. Usually YES/NO; some markets have multiple (e.g., which team wins a championship).

P

Payout

The $1 per winning share distributed at market resolution. You claim it via the redeem function.

PnL (Profit and Loss)

Realized profit or loss from closed positions. PolySharks ranks whales by all-time realized PnL by default.

Polygon

The Layer 2 blockchain where Polymarket settles trades. Fast, cheap, and fully on-chain.

Position size

The $ amount a whale has at risk in a market. Size relative to bankroll is the best conviction proxy.

Prediction market

A financial market where the asset’s price equals the market-implied probability of a real-world event.

Price impact

How much your own trade moves the market price. A $50K buy in a thin book might push price up 4¢; that’s 4¢ of slippage.

Proxy wallet

The Polymarket-managed contract wallet where user positions are held. Your visible wallet is a proxy of your signer key.

R

Realized PnL

Profit from positions that have actually been closed. Hardest number to manipulate, so PolySharks uses it as primary ranking metric.

Redeemable

A position whose market has resolved and is now claimable for payout. PolySharks filters these out of consensus calculations to avoid stale-signal noise.

ROI

Return on investment. Total PnL divided by total volume or capital deployed. A 20% all-time ROI on prediction markets is excellent.

S

Settlement

The process of paying out winners once a market resolves. Polymarket settles in USDC.

Signal Engine

PolySharks’ 0–100 score that combines whale conviction, consensus, track record, and market context into one number. STRONG ≥ 80.

Slippage

The difference between the price you expected and the price you got. Mainly caused by thin liquidity or fast-moving markets.

Spread

Ask minus bid. Wider spreads = worse execution cost. Whales avoid markets with more than 3¢ spread.

Stacked USD

Total $ all the consensus whales have at risk on a single market side. Bigger stack = more conviction across the cohort.

T

Tail (verb)

To copy a whale’s position. Tailing works only if you match % sizing and respect stop losses.

V

Volume

Total $ traded in a market. High volume means easier entry/exit and more reliable price discovery.

W

Whale

A trader with consistently large positions ($25K+) and a track record of positive realized PnL. PolySharks tracks the top 50.

Y

YES

The affirmative side of a binary market. Pays $1 if the event occurs.