What is Polymarket Whale Tracker?

Polymarket Whale Tracker (PolySharks.ai) is a free real-time dashboard that monitors the top 50 highest-performing traders (whales) on Polymarket, the largest prediction market platform. It tracks their PnL, volume, active bets, and conviction scores across politics, crypto, sports, and finance markets. Paid Pro users also get cross-market arbitrage monitoring between Polymarket and Kalshi, plus Signal Engine scoring.

Who are the biggest Polymarket whales?

The biggest Polymarket whales are anonymous traders who place large bets—often $100,000 or more—on prediction market outcomes. Our tracker ranks them by total PnL (profit and loss), trading volume, conviction score, and bet frequency. Top whales often focus on U.S. political elections, cryptocurrency price predictions, Federal Reserve decisions, and major sporting events.

How does the Polymarket conviction score work?

The conviction score is a weighted composite metric: 40% PnL (profit and loss), 25% realized PnL, 20% percentage return on bets, and 15% total bet size. This formula rewards consistent profitable traders who deploy significant capital with conviction, not just those who got lucky on a single trade.

Polymarket is the world's largest decentralized prediction market platform. Users buy and sell shares in the outcome of real-world events—like elections, economic data, sports results, and crypto price milestones. Each share pays $1 if the outcome occurs and $0 if it doesn't, creating real-time probability estimates based on market consensus.

How does Polymarket work?

On Polymarket, users trade YES and NO shares for real-world events. If you buy a YES share at $0.42, you believe there is more than a 42% chance the event will happen. If the event occurs, your share is worth $1 (profit of $0.58). If it doesn't, the share is worth $0 (loss of $0.42). Prices move based on supply and demand, reflecting the market's collective probability estimate.

What are the most popular Polymarket prediction markets?

The most popular Polymarket markets include: U.S. Presidential Election odds (2028), Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, Bitcoin and Ethereum price milestones, major sports championships (NBA, UEFA Champions League, UFC), and geopolitical events. Political markets typically have the highest trading volume, sometimes exceeding $15 million.

How do I track whale bets on Polymarket?

Use Polymarket Whale Tracker to monitor large bets in real time. Our Today's Leaders tab shows the top 50 traders ranked by performance alongside their current positions, and the Live Picks feed below streams the largest trades as they happen. Visit the Arbitrage tab to spot price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi. You can filter by category (Politics, Crypto, Sports, Finance) and time period (Day, Week, Month).

What does "amount at risk" mean on Polymarket?

Amount at risk represents the total dollar value of a trader's open positions that could be lost if all bets resolve against them. It is calculated as the sum of (position size × entry price) for all active bets. A high amount at risk combined with positive PnL indicates a confident, high-conviction trader.

Are Polymarket whale identities public?

Most Polymarket whale identities are anonymous — traders use blockchain wallet addresses. PolySharks identifies whales by their on-chain wallet, ranks them by realized PnL, and surfaces only verifiable on-chain activity. We do not publish unverified or speculative real-world identities.

What is a repeat bet on Polymarket?

A repeat bet occurs when a trader places multiple trades on the same market and same side (YES or NO). High repeat bet counts signal strong conviction—the trader is consistently adding to their position rather than making a single bet. Our tracker counts repeat bets per trader and highlights those with the highest conviction levels.

What is the Signal Engine on PolySharks?

The Signal Engine scores every whale from 0–100 using five weighted factors: whaleScore (30% of score, PnL rank), timingScore (20%, recency of last trade), convictionScore (20%, repeat bets), sizeScore (15%, largest bet / volume ratio), and recencyScore (15%, trade frequency). Grades are STRONG (75+), MEDIUM (50–74), WEAK (25–49), and LOW (0–24). Look for STRONG-grade whales making large recent bets as the highest-signal picks to tail.

How does PolySharks find Polymarket vs. Kalshi arbitrage?

The arbitrage engine pulls top-volume Polymarket markets (via Gamma API) and Kalshi events (via /events?with_nested_markets). It matches markets using a bigram + topic-keyword algorithm that requires both a distinctive entity (e.g., Trump, Bitcoin, Iran) and an adjacent word pair to overlap. It then pulls live orderbook mid-prices from each platform. If buying YES on one venue and NO on the other costs less than $1 total, an arbitrage opportunity is reported with the implied edge. Auto-refreshes every 5 minutes.

What is Cross-Platform Confluence on PolySharks?

Cross-Platform Confluence pairs every Smart Money Consensus bet on Polymarket with its matching Kalshi market and labels each pair as CONFLUENCE (both venues’ flow leans the same direction), DIVERGENCE (opposite flow), or NEUTRAL (no clear lean on Kalshi). Confluence trades are the highest-conviction signal because two distinct trader populations — Polymarket’s crypto-native whales and Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated institutional flow — are agreeing. Matching uses a Jaccard token-overlap algorithm with topic anchors so noise like sports vs. politics never gets cross-paired.

How does PolySharks identify whale wallet identities?

PolySharks resolves the on-chain ENS (Ethereum Name Service) record for every top-50 whale wallet using the public api.ensideas.com resolver. When a whale has registered an ENS name (e.g., theshark.eth) we display it next to their wallet address as an On-Chain Identity tag. We never publish unverified or speculative real-world identities — only ENS data the wallet owner has chosen to publish on-chain.

What is Ask PolySharks AI?

Ask PolySharks is a GPT-powered assistant grounded in our live market data. It answers natural-language questions like "what are the top 5 whales betting on right now?", "show me confluence trades for the 2028 election", or "explain this Kalshi market". Replies cite live data fetched at request time — not pre-trained text — so answers reflect the current state of the market.

What is SharkScore and how is it different from the Signal Engine?

SharkScore is a per-trade quality metric (0–100) shown next to individual whale picks. It blends the whale’s historical PnL, position size relative to their book, repeat-bet conviction, and trade timing. The Signal Engine is a per-trader metric covering the trader’s overall edge. Use SharkScore to evaluate a single bet, Signal grade to evaluate a trader.

What is the PolySharks Receipts API?

The Receipts API (GET /api/receipts) is an auditable list of every Polymarket consensus call PolySharks has surfaced, with the outcome the market eventually resolved to. Each row shows: call time, whales agreeing, market, side bet, resolution, and PnL if you had tailed it. We publish this so the platform’s historical accuracy is verifiable, not a marketing claim.

SharkScore is PolySharks' 0–100 transparent conviction score for individual whale signals on Polymarket. It is the weighted sum of six published components: whale strength, consensus, price edge, liquidity, recency, and timing.

What does an ELITE SharkScore mean?

An ELITE grade means SharkScore is 90 or above. STRONG = 75–89, WATCHLIST = 60–74, WEAK = below 60. The grade is descriptive, not financial advice.

How is SharkScore different from the per-trader Signal grade?

SharkScore is per-signal (one specific bet). The Signal Engine grade is per-trader (a wallet's overall edge). Use SharkScore to evaluate a single market opportunity; use the Signal grade to evaluate whether to follow a trader at all.

Can SharkScore be gamed?

Five of six inputs are on-chain Polymarket data (cohort PnL, stacked size, entry price, current price, timestamps). The sixth — timing — is from Polymarket's published end_date. There is no off-chain input to manipulate.

SharkScore™

Whale conviction, expressed as one number.

SharkScore™ is a transparent 0–100 quality score we attach to every whale signal on PolySharks. Six components, every weight published, every input auditable. No black-box ML. No hand-wave. Sort the leaderboard by it, quote it, screenshot it.

See today's ELITE signals Full methodology

Grade bands

ELITE

90 – 100

All six components firing. Cohort, consensus, fresh action, plenty of room.

STRONG

75 – 89

High conviction with one weak component — usually slightly stale recency or timing.

WATCHLIST

60 – 74

Two whales agreeing, decent liquidity, but missing a clean edge or recency catalyst.

WEAK

0 – 59

Below threshold. Surface it for completeness; do not stake meaningful size on it.

Six components · published weights

Component	What it measures	Weight
Whale Strength Average realized PnL of the whales in this signal.	Average realized PnL of the whales in this signal. We map the cohort's mean percent PnL from −50% to +100% onto a 0–25 scale. Floored so one bad row doesn't blow up the score.	25/100
Whale Consensus How many top-50 whales are on the same side.	How many top-50 whales are on the same side. 5+ whales = full 20 points. 4 = 16. 3 = 12. 2 = 6. 1 or zero = 0. Conviction without consensus is just one opinion.	20/100
Price Edge How much room is left between current price and resolution.	How much room is left between current price and resolution. For YES bets we measure distance to $1. For NO bets, distance to $0. Markets pinned to the wall score zero — no edge left to capture.	20/100
Liquidity Total USD stacked by the cohort, log-scaled.	Total USD stacked by the cohort, log-scaled. $10K = 5 points. $100K = 10. $1M+ = the full 15. Bigger checks mean stronger conviction relative to a whale's book.	15/100
Recency How fresh the cohort's last action is.	How fresh the cohort's last action is. ≤6h = 10. ≤24h = 8. ≤72h = 5. ≤1 week = 3. Older = 1. A 7-day-old consensus is news, not signal.	10/100
Timing Days until market resolution.	Days until market resolution. Sweet spot 1–30 days = full 10 points. Same-day resolution = 4 (high variance). >180 days = 3 (too long to extract edge).	10/100
Total	Sum, rounded to integer, clamped 0–100	100

Worked example

Hypothetical signal

4 top-50 whales (avg +63% PnL) just opened YES on “Will Fed cut rates in December?” at 38¢ — total stacked $612K.

Whale Strength

17/25

+63% avg, mapped through the curve

Whale Consensus

16/20

4 whales agreeing

Price Edge

17/20

38¢ → 100¢ = 62¢ room, near the max

Liquidity

11/15

$612K log-scaled

Recency

10/10

All four moved within 4 hours

Timing

10/10

~3 weeks to resolution — sweet spot

SharkScore

STRONG

Add a fifth whale or shave another point off price-edge and this crosses into ELITE (90+).

Design principles

Six inputs · zero black box

Every component is plain math on public Polymarket data. We publish the formula, not a magic number.

Auditable by anyone

Hover the badge anywhere on the site — you get the same six-line breakdown that we used to compute the score.

Descriptive, not advice

SharkScore measures conviction in the cohort. It does not measure whether they will be right. Prediction-market positions can go to zero.

Live now

See today's highest-SharkScore signals

Sort the live leaderboard by SharkScore — surface ELITE conviction first.

Open the leaderboard

Informational analytics only. SharkScore is a descriptive metric, not financial advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss.