What is Polymarket Whale Tracker?

Polymarket Whale Tracker (PolySharks.ai) is a free real-time dashboard that monitors the top 50 highest-performing traders (whales) on Polymarket, the largest prediction market platform. It tracks their PnL, volume, active bets, and conviction scores across politics, crypto, sports, and finance markets. Paid Pro users also get cross-market arbitrage monitoring between Polymarket and Kalshi, plus Signal Engine scoring.

Who are the biggest Polymarket whales?

The biggest Polymarket whales are anonymous traders who place large bets—often $100,000 or more—on prediction market outcomes. Our tracker ranks them by total PnL (profit and loss), trading volume, conviction score, and bet frequency. Top whales often focus on U.S. political elections, cryptocurrency price predictions, Federal Reserve decisions, and major sporting events.

How does the Polymarket conviction score work?

The conviction score is a weighted composite metric: 40% PnL (profit and loss), 25% realized PnL, 20% percentage return on bets, and 15% total bet size. This formula rewards consistent profitable traders who deploy significant capital with conviction, not just those who got lucky on a single trade.

Polymarket is the world's largest decentralized prediction market platform. Users buy and sell shares in the outcome of real-world events—like elections, economic data, sports results, and crypto price milestones. Each share pays $1 if the outcome occurs and $0 if it doesn't, creating real-time probability estimates based on market consensus.

How does Polymarket work?

On Polymarket, users trade YES and NO shares for real-world events. If you buy a YES share at $0.42, you believe there is more than a 42% chance the event will happen. If the event occurs, your share is worth $1 (profit of $0.58). If it doesn't, the share is worth $0 (loss of $0.42). Prices move based on supply and demand, reflecting the market's collective probability estimate.

What are the most popular Polymarket prediction markets?

The most popular Polymarket markets include: U.S. Presidential Election odds (2028), Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, Bitcoin and Ethereum price milestones, major sports championships (NBA, UEFA Champions League, UFC), and geopolitical events. Political markets typically have the highest trading volume, sometimes exceeding $15 million.

How do I track whale bets on Polymarket?

Use Polymarket Whale Tracker to monitor large bets in real time. Our Today's Leaders tab shows the top 50 traders ranked by performance alongside their current positions, and the Live Picks feed below streams the largest trades as they happen. Visit the Arbitrage tab to spot price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi. You can filter by category (Politics, Crypto, Sports, Finance) and time period (Day, Week, Month).

What does "amount at risk" mean on Polymarket?

Amount at risk represents the total dollar value of a trader's open positions that could be lost if all bets resolve against them. It is calculated as the sum of (position size × entry price) for all active bets. A high amount at risk combined with positive PnL indicates a confident, high-conviction trader.

Are Polymarket whale identities public?

Most Polymarket whale identities are anonymous — traders use blockchain wallet addresses. PolySharks identifies whales by their on-chain wallet, ranks them by realized PnL, and surfaces only verifiable on-chain activity. We do not publish unverified or speculative real-world identities.

What is a repeat bet on Polymarket?

A repeat bet occurs when a trader places multiple trades on the same market and same side (YES or NO). High repeat bet counts signal strong conviction—the trader is consistently adding to their position rather than making a single bet. Our tracker counts repeat bets per trader and highlights those with the highest conviction levels.

What is the Signal Engine on PolySharks?

The Signal Engine scores every whale from 0–100 using five weighted factors: whaleScore (30% of score, PnL rank), timingScore (20%, recency of last trade), convictionScore (20%, repeat bets), sizeScore (15%, largest bet / volume ratio), and recencyScore (15%, trade frequency). Grades are STRONG (75+), MEDIUM (50–74), WEAK (25–49), and LOW (0–24). Look for STRONG-grade whales making large recent bets as the highest-signal picks to tail.

How does PolySharks find Polymarket vs. Kalshi arbitrage?

The arbitrage engine pulls top-volume Polymarket markets (via Gamma API) and Kalshi events (via /events?with_nested_markets). It matches markets using a bigram + topic-keyword algorithm that requires both a distinctive entity (e.g., Trump, Bitcoin, Iran) and an adjacent word pair to overlap. It then pulls live orderbook mid-prices from each platform. If buying YES on one venue and NO on the other costs less than $1 total, an arbitrage opportunity is reported with the implied edge. Auto-refreshes every 5 minutes.

What is Cross-Platform Confluence on PolySharks?

Cross-Platform Confluence pairs every Smart Money Consensus bet on Polymarket with its matching Kalshi market and labels each pair as CONFLUENCE (both venues’ flow leans the same direction), DIVERGENCE (opposite flow), or NEUTRAL (no clear lean on Kalshi). Confluence trades are the highest-conviction signal because two distinct trader populations — Polymarket’s crypto-native whales and Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated institutional flow — are agreeing. Matching uses a Jaccard token-overlap algorithm with topic anchors so noise like sports vs. politics never gets cross-paired.

How does PolySharks identify whale wallet identities?

PolySharks resolves the on-chain ENS (Ethereum Name Service) record for every top-50 whale wallet using the public api.ensideas.com resolver. When a whale has registered an ENS name (e.g., theshark.eth) we display it next to their wallet address as an On-Chain Identity tag. We never publish unverified or speculative real-world identities — only ENS data the wallet owner has chosen to publish on-chain.

What is Ask PolySharks AI?

Ask PolySharks is a GPT-powered assistant grounded in our live market data. It answers natural-language questions like "what are the top 5 whales betting on right now?", "show me confluence trades for the 2028 election", or "explain this Kalshi market". Replies cite live data fetched at request time — not pre-trained text — so answers reflect the current state of the market.

What is SharkScore and how is it different from the Signal Engine?

SharkScore is a per-trade quality metric (0–100) shown next to individual whale picks. It blends the whale’s historical PnL, position size relative to their book, repeat-bet conviction, and trade timing. The Signal Engine is a per-trader metric covering the trader’s overall edge. Use SharkScore to evaluate a single bet, Signal grade to evaluate a trader.

What is the PolySharks Receipts API?

The Receipts API (GET /api/receipts) is an auditable list of every Polymarket consensus call PolySharks has surfaced, with the outcome the market eventually resolved to. Each row shows: call time, whales agreeing, market, side bet, resolution, and PnL if you had tailed it. We publish this so the platform’s historical accuracy is verifiable, not a marketing claim.

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Track Record

Live performance of the cohort we track — last computed 5/28/2026, 1:57:39 PM

We publish auditable numbers, not vague "smart money" claims. Below: how the top 50 Polymarket whales we track have performed in aggregate, both historically (realized) and in real-time (unrealized open positions). Read the methodology to see how every number is computed.

Aggregate ROI

+3.3%

$244.16M on $7.37B all-time volume

Median Whale ROI

+7.8%

Median across the 50 whales

Open Win Rate

61.8%

868 open positions · unrealized

Open Position PnL

+7.6%

Weighted by $ at risk · live

What this means: the top 50 Polymarket whales by all-time realized PnL have a 3.3% effective ROI on cumulative volume. Of every position they currently hold, 61.8% are in profit right now. These are unrealized for open positions — they can still go to zero. See limitations.

Top whales by all-time ROI

Sorted by ROI (PnL ÷ Volume). Filtered to whales with ≥ $50K cumulative volume so a 1-trade lucky shot can't dominate.

#	Whale	Volume	PnL	ROI
1	RepTrump 0x8631…aa53	$13.98M	+$7.53M	+53.9%
2	Len9311238 0x78b9…6b76	$16.40M	+$8.71M	+53.1%
3	Theo4 0x5668…5839	$43.01M	+$22.05M	+51.3%
4	BetTom42 0x8857…c270	$11.21M	+$5.64M	+50.3%
5	alexmulti 0xd0c0…5565	$9.95M	+$4.80M	+48.3%
6	mikatrade77 0x2378…5fcb	$10.88M	+$5.15M	+47.3%
7	Jenzigo 0x16f9…99e3	$9.46M	+$4.05M	+42.8%
8	FeatherLeather 0xd25c…4d20	$5.24M	+$2.10M	+40.1%
9	majorexploiter 0x0197…9f3c	$9.41M	+$3.67M	+39.0%
10	Michie 0xed22…3dd0	$8.45M	+$3.10M	+36.6%

Coming soon · Consensus hit rate

We snapshot the top consensus bets every day. Once the underlying markets resolve we'll publish:

The actual hit rate of the #1 consensus bet (last 30 / 60 / 90 days)
A calibration curve — does a 60¢ consensus bet really resolve 60% of the time?
The cumulative ROI of always tailing the #1 consensus at posted entry price

Snapshot system live since June 2025. We'll publish hit rate as soon as 30+ snapshotted markets have resolved.

Past performance is not predictive. The numbers above describe the cohort we currently track — the same wallets 6 months from now may not be in the top 50. Open-position win rate is an unrealized snapshot, not a closed-bet hit rate. PolySharks is informational only — see /methodology for full limitations and /disclaimer for the legal disclosure.

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Compliance & Disclosures

PolySharks.ai is a market-intelligence and analytics platform operated by 8eight8 LLC. The site is provided for informational and educational purposes only — it is not financial, legal, tax, or gambling advice. Past whale performance and historical data carry no guarantee of future outcomes. Trading prediction markets involves substantial risk of loss, including 100% of principal. Users are solely responsible for compliance with the laws of their local jurisdiction — prediction-market access is restricted or prohibited in some US states and countries; verify legality before depositing or trading on Polymarket or Kalshi. PolySharks does not custody funds and is not affiliated with Polymarket Inc. or Kalshi Inc. 18+ only (21+ in some jurisdictions).