What is Polymarket Whale Tracker?

Polymarket Whale Tracker (PolySharks.ai) is a free real-time dashboard that monitors the top 50 highest-performing traders (whales) on Polymarket, the largest prediction market platform. It tracks their PnL, volume, active bets, and conviction scores across politics, crypto, sports, and finance markets. Paid Pro users also get cross-market arbitrage monitoring between Polymarket and Kalshi, plus Signal Engine scoring.

Who are the biggest Polymarket whales?

The biggest Polymarket whales are anonymous traders who place large bets—often $100,000 or more—on prediction market outcomes. Our tracker ranks them by total PnL (profit and loss), trading volume, conviction score, and bet frequency. Top whales often focus on U.S. political elections, cryptocurrency price predictions, Federal Reserve decisions, and major sporting events.

How does the Polymarket conviction score work?

The conviction score is a weighted composite metric: 40% PnL (profit and loss), 25% realized PnL, 20% percentage return on bets, and 15% total bet size. This formula rewards consistent profitable traders who deploy significant capital with conviction, not just those who got lucky on a single trade.

Polymarket is the world's largest decentralized prediction market platform. Users buy and sell shares in the outcome of real-world events—like elections, economic data, sports results, and crypto price milestones. Each share pays $1 if the outcome occurs and $0 if it doesn't, creating real-time probability estimates based on market consensus.

How does Polymarket work?

On Polymarket, users trade YES and NO shares for real-world events. If you buy a YES share at $0.42, you believe there is more than a 42% chance the event will happen. If the event occurs, your share is worth $1 (profit of $0.58). If it doesn't, the share is worth $0 (loss of $0.42). Prices move based on supply and demand, reflecting the market's collective probability estimate.

What are the most popular Polymarket prediction markets?

The most popular Polymarket markets include: U.S. Presidential Election odds (2028), Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, Bitcoin and Ethereum price milestones, major sports championships (NBA, UEFA Champions League, UFC), and geopolitical events. Political markets typically have the highest trading volume, sometimes exceeding $15 million.

How do I track whale bets on Polymarket?

Use Polymarket Whale Tracker to monitor large bets in real time. Our Today's Leaders tab shows the top 50 traders ranked by performance alongside their current positions, and the Live Picks feed below streams the largest trades as they happen. Visit the Arbitrage tab to spot price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi. You can filter by category (Politics, Crypto, Sports, Finance) and time period (Day, Week, Month).

What does "amount at risk" mean on Polymarket?

Amount at risk represents the total dollar value of a trader's open positions that could be lost if all bets resolve against them. It is calculated as the sum of (position size × entry price) for all active bets. A high amount at risk combined with positive PnL indicates a confident, high-conviction trader.

Are Polymarket whale identities public?

Most Polymarket whale identities are anonymous — traders use blockchain wallet addresses. PolySharks identifies whales by their on-chain wallet, ranks them by realized PnL, and surfaces only verifiable on-chain activity. We do not publish unverified or speculative real-world identities.

What is a repeat bet on Polymarket?

A repeat bet occurs when a trader places multiple trades on the same market and same side (YES or NO). High repeat bet counts signal strong conviction—the trader is consistently adding to their position rather than making a single bet. Our tracker counts repeat bets per trader and highlights those with the highest conviction levels.

What is the Signal Engine on PolySharks?

The Signal Engine scores every whale from 0–100 using five weighted factors: whaleScore (30% of score, PnL rank), timingScore (20%, recency of last trade), convictionScore (20%, repeat bets), sizeScore (15%, largest bet / volume ratio), and recencyScore (15%, trade frequency). Grades are STRONG (75+), MEDIUM (50–74), WEAK (25–49), and LOW (0–24). Look for STRONG-grade whales making large recent bets as the highest-signal picks to tail.

How does PolySharks find Polymarket vs. Kalshi arbitrage?

The arbitrage engine pulls top-volume Polymarket markets (via Gamma API) and Kalshi events (via /events?with_nested_markets). It matches markets using a bigram + topic-keyword algorithm that requires both a distinctive entity (e.g., Trump, Bitcoin, Iran) and an adjacent word pair to overlap. It then pulls live orderbook mid-prices from each platform. If buying YES on one venue and NO on the other costs less than $1 total, an arbitrage opportunity is reported with the implied edge. Auto-refreshes every 5 minutes.

What is Cross-Platform Confluence on PolySharks?

Cross-Platform Confluence pairs every Smart Money Consensus bet on Polymarket with its matching Kalshi market and labels each pair as CONFLUENCE (both venues’ flow leans the same direction), DIVERGENCE (opposite flow), or NEUTRAL (no clear lean on Kalshi). Confluence trades are the highest-conviction signal because two distinct trader populations — Polymarket’s crypto-native whales and Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated institutional flow — are agreeing. Matching uses a Jaccard token-overlap algorithm with topic anchors so noise like sports vs. politics never gets cross-paired.

How does PolySharks identify whale wallet identities?

PolySharks resolves the on-chain ENS (Ethereum Name Service) record for every top-50 whale wallet using the public api.ensideas.com resolver. When a whale has registered an ENS name (e.g., theshark.eth) we display it next to their wallet address as an On-Chain Identity tag. We never publish unverified or speculative real-world identities — only ENS data the wallet owner has chosen to publish on-chain.

What is Ask PolySharks AI?

Ask PolySharks is a GPT-powered assistant grounded in our live market data. It answers natural-language questions like "what are the top 5 whales betting on right now?", "show me confluence trades for the 2028 election", or "explain this Kalshi market". Replies cite live data fetched at request time — not pre-trained text — so answers reflect the current state of the market.

What is SharkScore and how is it different from the Signal Engine?

SharkScore is a per-trade quality metric (0–100) shown next to individual whale picks. It blends the whale’s historical PnL, position size relative to their book, repeat-bet conviction, and trade timing. The Signal Engine is a per-trader metric covering the trader’s overall edge. Use SharkScore to evaluate a single bet, Signal grade to evaluate a trader.

What is the PolySharks Receipts API?

The Receipts API (GET /api/receipts) is an auditable list of every Polymarket consensus call PolySharks has surfaced, with the outcome the market eventually resolved to. Each row shows: call time, whales agreeing, market, side bet, resolution, and PnL if you had tailed it. We publish this so the platform’s historical accuracy is verifiable, not a marketing claim.

Privacy Policy

Last updated: January 2026 · Effective: January 2026

This Privacy Policy explains how PolySharks.ai ("PolySharks", "we", "us") collects, uses, discloses, and protects your personal information when you use our website and services.

1. Information We Collect

We collect: (a) account information you provide (email, password hash, optional name) when you sign up; (b) subscription & billing metadata via Stripe (we never store card numbers — Stripe does); (c) technical data automatically (IP address, browser, device, pages viewed, referral source); (d) public on-chain data from Polymarket (wallet addresses, trades) and public Kalshi market data. We do not collect special-category data (health, biometrics).

2. How We Use Information

To operate the PolySharks service (deliver dashboard content, process subscriptions, send transactional emails, prevent abuse), to improve the product (aggregate analytics, A/B tests), and to comply with legal obligations. We use a lawful basis of contract performance for paid features and legitimate interest for product analytics.

3. Cookies & Tracking

We use strictly-necessary cookies for session auth and cart state. We use optional analytics cookies (page views, referral) only after your explicit consent via the cookie banner. You can withdraw consent at any time in the cookie banner at the bottom of every page. See /cookie-policy for a full list.

4. Sharing Your Data

We share data only with: Supabase (database + auth hosting), Stripe (payment processing), GoDaddy / nodemailer (outbound email), Vercel / Emergent (application hosting). We never sell personal data. We disclose data in response to lawful legal process.

5. Data Retention

Account data is retained while your account is active and for 90 days after cancellation, then permanently deleted unless required by tax or fraud-prevention laws (7-year max). Aggregated usage metrics may be retained indefinitely in anonymized form.

6. Your Rights (GDPR / CCPA / UK GDPR)

You may (a) request a copy of your data, (b) correct it, (c) delete it, (d) port it, (e) object to processing, (f) withdraw consent. Email [email protected]. California residents have the right to know what we collect and to opt-out of data sales (we do not sell). We respond within 30 days.

7. International Transfers

Your data is stored in US-based servers (Supabase, Stripe, Vercel). If you access from outside the US we rely on Standard Contractual Clauses for any transfer.

8. Children

PolySharks is not directed to persons under 18. If we learn we have collected data from someone under 18 we will delete it immediately. Contact [email protected] to report.

9. Security

We use HTTPS/TLS, bcrypt-style password hashing via Supabase, Stripe-hosted checkout, row-level-security on the database, and restricted admin access. No system is 100% secure — report suspected incidents to [email protected].

10. Changes to This Policy

We will notify you by email and in-app banner at least 30 days before material changes take effect. The "Last updated" date below always reflects the current version.

11. Contact

PolySharks — [email protected]. Postal contact available on request at [email protected].